I have spent a considerable amount of time over the last year or so studying aspects of our power generation and usage in the US and, I have to say, there is significant cause for concern. While I am nowhere near an expert I can confidently say that I know more than all but the smallest sliver of our political class. The more I learn, the more concerned I become at every pronouncement by some politician at virtually every single level of government.
When people give any thought at all to why their lights come on in the evening when they flip the light switch, it is in the most superficial of manners. Many actually believe that they can determine, by contracting with a “clean energy” provider, where their electricity comes from. But let’s take a look at that, shall we? Let’s say that you contracted with a company that claims to be able to ensure your power is derived via nothing but renewables. Let’s forget for a moment that electricity can’t be selected like meat in the butcher case at the grocery store, separating grass fed from grain fed and organic from the rest. And let’s also forget the lie that wind and solar are cheap forms of generation. Their ability to deliver at low cost would be non-existent were it not for the system of Clean Energy Credits (CECs) that renewable generators sell to fossil fuel generators to “offset” their supposed sins. Forgetting that for a moment, let’s look at the power generation for MISO and PJM, two enormous Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) that, combined, stretch from the Atlantic Coast to just past the Mississippi in the west and from Minnesota down to the Gulf Coast in the south. This is data taken at the time I am writing at 6:30 AM on Jan 24th:
MISO
PJM
First and most notable is the fact that, of the approximate 171,000 MW of generation, just under 10,000 MW, or 5.85% is generated using renewables. Of that, hydro seems to be the most meaningful for this window of time. It is also the most reliable of the renewables category. This level of renewable generation is very representative for PJM but not so much for MISO. The MISO region on windy days can generate as much as 30,000 MW of electricity. That is an anomaly, however. More typically, when the wind is blowing, it runs in the 15-25,000 MW range. Not bad but nowhere near the level required to keep the grid from collapse.
In terms of solar capacity, it is an inconsequential part of either grid for good reason. The shorter and darker days of the PJM and MISO regions make solar impractical. Here’s the forecast in the MISO region for the next two days for solar sources:
And let’s throw the wind forecast for the region in for good measure:
What this shows is that, by tomorrow morning, we can expect virtually no generation from any significant renewable sources tomorrow morning. So where is all that excess generation going to have to come from? Coal and natural gas.
Intermittency is a Bigger Problem Than Anyone Will Admit
This is where the lack of realistic discussion gets truly horrible. When the intermittency problem is brought up the answer always seems to be “battery storage”. We’ve already established that, at the current modest temps for a midwest and eastern winter we need to generate 171,000 MW in the early morning. When it was below zero, those numbers increased to around 250,000 MW. Now let’s consider the drive to electrify everything. Cars, stoves, heat pumps, on and on and on. All of that will add a need for a tremendous amount of capacity to our system. Could we get there via a 100% wind and solar supply? Maybe in 100 years. Possibly.
But then lets look at what happens in the evening, and when the wind isn’t blowing. Where’s the power going to come from? Battery storage they say. Charged via what method? The same wind and solar that has to support the entire grid? That would probably require a doubling of generation, let’s call it 400,000 MW on average (just for the two regions we are discussing), to both power the grid at any point in time when renewables are working, and to also then create enough extra capacity to charge those batteries.
Grid level batteries do exist currently. The facilities take up significant space. And the MW capacity of these facilities is discussed it is often in terms of output so you might hear of a facility with an output capacity of 100 MW. In that case what is meant is that the facility can store enough electricity to provide the grid with 100 MW for one hour. THAT’S where we are today. These massive battery facilities, that are not yet widespread in their use, are only capable of very short term contributions to our power grid. Now, look again at the images above of the wind and solar output levels in the RTOs being discussed for the next day.
There’s some great things about adding battery capacity to the grid. Most of which revolves around their ability to instantly provide needed energy in sudden demand spikes or in the event of a generation facility going offline unexpectedly.But, no, we are nowhere near the point that we can consider ending our reliance on fossil fuels. Not without ending modern civilization as we know it. And anyone that tells you differently is ignorant or is outright lying to you.